Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Central Phoenix sales rose even with 7.5% mortgage rates

By Vanessa Aragon

Real estate, Central Phoenix

Rates are high. Buyers are still buying. That is the headline for Central Phoenix right now.

Realtor.com reported the mortgage rate in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro at 7.5% in September 2026. That is not a small number. Yet the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 763 homes sold across Central Phoenix in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 2.8% from the same three months in 2025. Demand did not disappear. It got more selective.

Fannie Mae, as reported by CNBC on October 14, 2026, forecast the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% for all of 2027. Rates are not falling fast. Sellers who wait for a big rate drop may wait a long time.

What sold, and what did not

Not every ZIP code moved the same way. Some saw more sales and faster contracts. Others slowed. Here is how each area measured up in the three months ending August 31, 2026, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

85013 and 85018 led the area in sales growth. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 63 homes sold in 85013, up 28.6% from a year earlier. It counted 147 homes sold in 85018, up 27.8%. Both ZIPs also saw months of supply fall or hold near balance.

85016 told a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 107 homes sold there, down 20.1% from a year earlier. Supply there stood at 7.1 months, up 1.5 months from 2025. More homes, fewer buyers closing. Pricing and prep matter most in a ZIP like that.

Prices: a mixed picture

Some prices rose. Some dipped. Neither direction dominated the whole market.

85021 saw the biggest price gain. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price there at $590,000, up 13.5% from a year earlier. But fewer homes sold, down 17.6%. Higher prices with fewer sales can mean the mix of what sold shifted, not that every home jumped in value.

85013 saw the biggest price drop, down 13.4% to $485,000. Yet sales there rose 28.6%. Lower prices brought buyers in. Months of supply fell 2.2 months to 4.1. That is the tightest supply in Central Phoenix, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of U.S. listings carried a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Central Phoenix is not immune to that pressure. Sellers who start too high are cutting later.

How fast homes went under contract

Speed varied a lot by ZIP. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked the share of homes that went under contract within two weeks of listing.

85020 led all ZIPs. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 26.1% of homes there went under contract within two weeks, up 3.1 points from a year earlier. 85012 sat at the other end at 9.1%, down 7 points. Same market, very different pace.

What sellers are getting at closing

The sale-to-list ratio tells you how close to asking price sellers actually received. All ZIPs came in below 100%, meaning list price discipline matters.

85013 and 85021 tied for the highest ratio at 97.6%, both improving from a year ago. 85008 came in at 95.8%, down 2.4 points. A seller there is leaving more on the table than a year ago if the list price is not sharp.

The wider picture

Nationally, CNBC reported on October 14, 2026 that pending home sales were down 8.5% year over year according to Zillow. Central Phoenix held up better than that. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 818 pending sales across Central Phoenix in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down only 1.6% from a year earlier.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported on September 29, 2026 that U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. That is a national figure. Central Phoenix prices moved differently by ZIP, as the numbers above show.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. The numbers above cover broad areas. Your block, your floor plan and your condition all shift the picture. Reach out and I can tell you what the data says for your specific address.