Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Central Phoenix is splitting into buyer and seller pockets

By Vanessa Aragon

Real estate, Central Phoenix

The number that matters most: one Central Phoenix ZIP rose 13.5% in median sale price while another fell 13.4%, in the same three months. That gap is wide enough to change what your move looks like entirely.

Redfin reported that Phoenix home prices slipped 0.1% month over month in September 2026. That single number hides a lot. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 763 homes sold across Central Phoenix in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 2.8% from the same months of 2025. Steady volume, yes. But the prices inside that volume are anything but steady.

The two ends of the split

ZIP 85021 is the rising end. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price there at $590,000, up 13.5% year over year. Nearly 1 in 4 homes there went under contract within two weeks, and 18% sold above list price. Those are seller-side numbers.

ZIP 85013 is the falling end. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price there at $485,000, down 13.4% year over year. Prices dipped, but homes actually sold faster: the median was 11 days shorter than a year ago, and 12.7% sold above list price. So buyers are active, just at lower prices.

Where each ZIP stands: median sale prices

Year-over-year price change by ZIP

Five of the nine ZIPs saw prices fall year over year. Four saw prices rise. That is not a single market moving one direction.

How fast homes are moving

85013 and 85021 both clocked 63 days on market. One saw prices fall 13.4%, the other rise 13.5%. Speed alone does not tell you which direction prices went.

Supply: where buyers have more room

Six months of supply is a rough dividing line between buyer and seller conditions. Four ZIPs sit below it. Three sit at or above it. That is the split in plain numbers.

The wider picture

Realtor.com reported that the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro median home price was $475,000 in September 2026, with a mortgage rate of 7.5%. Realtor.com also noted that 20.8% of U.S. listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. That national pressure is real, and it shows up unevenly across Central Phoenix.

Redfin reported that U.S. home prices rose 3.8% year over year in September 2026, the fastest annual rate since June 2025. The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S. house prices up 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Those national gains look nothing like the 13.4% drop in 85013 or the 13.5% rise in 85021.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. And one ZIP code can read very differently from the Central Phoenix average. If you are weighing a move, the ZIP code you are in, and the price range you are in, matters more than any broad number.